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New
Knowledge Means New Approaches to Solving Dryland Salinity
Mike Read
Resource
Economist, formerly managing director of Read Sturgess and Associates, and
recently retired for health reasons
This paper summarises a
recent study of dryland salinity, undertaken for the National Land and Water
Resources Audit (Read
et. al. (2000)).
The findings are important because they overturn some long held fallacies
that have shaped governments’ policy responses to dryland salinity in
Australia. This mainly reflects a new understanding of the biophysical
processes involved with dryland salinity (see Coram
et. al. 2000 and
Pannell 1999).
The study for the National
Land and Water Resource Audit by Read et.
al. (2000) involved a substantial amount of fieldwork, along
with economic modelling, and was concentrated on four particular catchments
as case studies:
- Wanilla
catchment, a small basin of about 17,000
hectares, situated about 40 km to the north west of Port Lincoln on the
lower Eyre Peninsular, South Australia.
- Lake
Warden catchment, situated near the coastal
town of Esperance on the southeast coast of Western Australia.
- Kamarooka
catchment, located in north central Victoria on the northern slopes of the
Great Divide.
- Upper
Billabong Creek catchment, located NW of
Holbrook (NSW) in the Murray Darling basin.
This work was commissioned
in conjunction with scientific studies, for which Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) specified catchment water balance
models for the same four catchments and formed projections about future
extents of salinity, for scenarios with and without salinity control in each
catchment (Baker et.
al. 2001, Hekmeijer et.
al. 2001, Short et. al. 2001 and Stauffacher
et. al. 2001).
The work by Read
et. al. (2000) benefited greatly from other major
economic research projects that were undertaken concurrently, particularly
those undertaken in Western Australia by Dr David Pannell, and those
undertaken by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE)
in the Murray Darling Basin. In each of those research projects, the economic
benefits and costs of various salinity management options have been compared
for particular catchments. In aggregate, those catchments represent a
significant and representative sample of areas affected by dryland salinity
across Australia, and all the studies have arrived at very similar
conclusions.
Important
biophysical characteristics of dryland salinity
A common misconception of
dryland salinity in Australia has been that it is typified by actions of
particular farmers affecting mainly other parts of the catchment where
salinity emerges, often long distances from the particular landholder (see
for example, ABARE 1992).
Such external effects represent ‘economic externalities’ and could
justify government funding. The analyses that concluded that external effects
were paramount were based on the view that there was a high degree of
hydrological transmissivity such that changes in recharge at one location
would benefit areas way beyond the area treated.
To the contrary, recent
research has shown that the adoption of practices to reduce recharge mainly
leads to benefits only for that land on which the treatment is implemented.
For example, evidence of the limited area of benefits beyond the site of
implementing works to reduce recharge comes from observations of extensive
tree planting in Western Australia. George
et. al. (1999) surveyed
the effectiveness of tree planting as a salinity management measure at 80
sites in Western Australia and concluded that trees had little effect on the
water tables beyond 10 to 30 metres from the planted area.
Important research by Coram
(2000) undertaken as part of the National Land and Water Resource
Audit’s Dryland Salinity theme, has emphasised that such observations are
not limited to Western Australia, and that the type of groundwater flow
system for each sub-catchment influences greatly the scope of externalities
and the effectiveness of particular options for managing and controlling
dryland salinity. The extent of the flow system, or the distance between
groundwater recharge and groundwater discharge, provides an indication of how
quickly salinisation is likely to manifest at the ground surface in each
groundwater flow system, and how long management strategies are likely to
take to achieve results.
Coram
(2000) considered three main types of groundwater flow systems;
local, intermediate and regional:
- Local groundwater flow
systems are fully contained within small catchments, and off-site impacts
would rarely extend beyond a distance of 10 to 50 metres.
- Intermediate and regional
groundwater flow systems operate within much larger catchments than local
systems. While off-site impacts could extend over large areas, the slow
rate of movement (‘hydrological transmissivity’) makes them largely
inconsequential. For example, extensive movements of groundwater in these
groundwater flow systems would involve delays typically of 50 to 200 years.
Because of the high
incidence of local groundwater flow systems, and the low transmissivity of
intermediate and regional groundwater flow systems, it is not common that
actions to control salinity by one landholder in one region can have a
substantial impact on neighbouring and downstream regions, with respect to
land salinisation. It should be noted that this is very different to the
hydro-geological processes associated with salinisation due to irrigation,
for which externalities are much more relevant.
Case
study results
Results from the case
studies are summarised in Tables 1 and 2. Four is only a small number of case
studies from which to seek generalisations, but even so the case studies have
produced some very interesting results:
- Kamarooka represents a
catchment that has had a dryland salinity problem for a long time, but a
catchment which has had an extremely intensive extension and research input
as well as grants for landholders, with the result that landholders have
implemented a fairly substantial amount of salinity control. The extent of
salinity has now stabilised.
- Lake Warden represents a
catchment with dryland salinity problems that have appeared only recently,
but landholders are already responding and implementing a fairly
substantial amount of salinity control. Landholders are motivated by the
need to halt the rapid expansion of salinity. From the viewpoint of
capacity to change, these results from Lake Warden and Kamarooka are highly
encouraging.
- On the other hand, there
is Wanilla for which no viable technical options are available to achieve
any substantial salinity control. Unfortunately it appears that Wanilla
will be more typical of many other catchments than would Lake Warden or
Kamarooka.
- In Upper Billabong Creek
the impacts are nowhere near substantial enough to warrant the
implementation of any salinity control. This also will be the outcome for
many catchments, particularly in the Murray Darling basin.
Only Lake Warden involves
substantial environmental benefits and that case study has emphasised that a
major disadvantage for farm-scale treatment is that it is unlikely to lead to
substantial improvements for downstream water quality in streams. Only
catchment-scale treatment of salinity, or appropriate engineering approaches,
can avoid water quality impacts since the hydrologic balance throughout an
entire catchment contributes to water quality at the bottom end of the
catchment. Local scale treatments can rarely have a substantial impact on
water quality as salt continues to be mobilised from the untreated areas of
the catchment.
Table 1:
Summary of Results from Case Studies – Quantitative
|
Wanilla
|
Lake
Warden
|
Kamarooka
|
Upper
Billabong Creek
|
Catchment area
(hectares)
|
17,000
|
171,000
|
10,000
|
300,000
|
Mean farm size
(hectares)
|
700
|
1,300
|
800
|
850
|
Present extent of
severely salinised catchment
|
8
per cent
|
8
per cent
|
7
per cent
|
0.1
per cent
|
Projected extent of
severely salinilised catchment by 2050 without control
|
16
per cent
|
more
than
45
per cent
|
7
per cent
|
1.1
per cent
|
Present impact of
salinity ($ p.a)
|
$300,000
|
$1,400,000
|
$50,000
|
$40,000
|
Projected
impacts from salinity over next 50 years without control ($ NPV)
|
$8,500,000
|
probably
greater than $200,000,000
|
$100,000
|
$3,700,000
|
Agricultural
share of impacts
|
95
per cent
|
42
per cent
|
85
per cent
|
80
per cent
|
Environmental
share of impacts
|
not
significant
|
42
per cent
|
not
significant
|
not
significant
|
Roads,
rural, urban share of impacts
|
5
per cent
|
15
per cent
|
2
per cent
|
6
per cent
|
Water
users share of impacts
|
nil
|
nil
|
10
per cent
|
14
per cent
|
Net
economic benefit over next 50 years from implementing 50 per cent
reduction in recharge (NPV $ million)
|
n.a.
|
44
|
0.6
|
n.a.
|
Net
economic benefit over next 50 years from implementing 75 per cent
reduction in recharge (NPV $ million)
|
n.a.
|
-67
|
n.a.
|
n.a.
|
Net
economic benefit over next 50 years from implementing 90 per cent
reduction in recharge (NPV $ million)
|
-27
|
-251
|
-0.4
|
n.a.
|
Table 2 :
Summary of Results from Case Studies – Qualitative
|
Wanilla
|
Lake
Warden
|
Kamarooka
|
Upper
Billabong Creek
|
Substantial
environmental benefits achievable by controlling dryland salinity
|
No
|
Yes
|
No
|
No
|
Substantial
impacts for agriculture and rural infrastructure due to dryland salinity
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Substantial
impacts for urban infrastructure due to dryland salinity
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
No
|
Substantial
impacts for water users due to dryland salinity
|
No
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Availability
of effective option(s) for salinity control
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
Implementation
of substantial salinity control is occurring
|
No
|
Yes
|
Yes
|
No
|
The results for all
catchments show conclusively that large-scale recharge control based on tree
planting would represent a very poor investment in most catchments. Balancing that disappointing result, the good news is that a shift towards
greater use of perennial pastures in crop rotations has been shown to be
profitable in some cases.
Trees simply are not well
suited to most salinised areas in Australia. The Bureau Of Rural Sciences (BRS)
has estimated that the area of cleared agricultural land potentially suitable
for commercial timber plantations and subject to salinity risk is only about
6 per cent of the total area subject to salinity risk (Tickle
et. al. 2000).
Re-vegetation for commercial timber production, under currently accepted
parameters, is therefore likely to have only a small role in the overall
control of dryland salinity.
Another
reason mitigating against the attractiveness of catchment-wide tree planting
is that typically only a relatively small area of any one catchment is
salinised. For example, in the Wanilla catchment, (unprofitable)
re-vegetation for about 70 percent of the catchment would be required in
order to protect the 8 per cent of the catchment which is at risk. Furthermore planting of trees also has the effect of
reducing surface runoff, with implications for river flows. The effect of
tree planting on runoff is relatively immediate and can be potentially large.
Factors
favouring re-vegetation with trees
There
will be situations where catchment-scale tree planting is attractive, but
those situations will be the exception rather than the rule. Large-scale
re-vegetation will be more likely to occur where:
- only
a small proportion of the catchment requires re-vegetation; and/or where
- substantial
off-site benefits would be achieved.
A
classic example of an attractive opportunity for catchment-scale
re-vegetation lies in the Collie catchment of Western Australia. Wellington
Dam was constructed in the catchment in 1960 with the main purposes of
supplying the water supply needs of Perth and Bunbury. The salinity levels of
the streamflows have subsequently become highly salinised such that water
from the Wellington Dam cannot be used for urban supplies. The Water and
Rivers Commission of Western Australia believes that most of that additional
salt load has been contributed by two small sub-catchments which are managed
primarily for grazing. The cleared area across those two sub-catchments
covers only about 16,000 hectares and catchment water balance modelling by
the Water and Rivers Commission indicates that tree planting across that
16,000 hectares would lead to a greater reduction in salinity levels than
those required to meet their water quality targets for urban supplies from
the Wellington Dam.
For supplies equivalent to
the safe minimum yield of the Wellington
Dam, it would be necessary to spend $1,070 million for the lowest costing
alternative water supply. When it is considered that those potable supplies
could be achieved by planting trees across only 16,000 hectares, the mean
level of benefit for each hectare of trees planted would be about $67,000.
That is, on average the recharge reduction from each hectare planted to trees
would lead to the avoidance of future capital expenditure for water supply
headworks of about $67,000. The reasons for the seemingly nonsensical,
continuation of agriculture in the problem sub-catchments of the Collie lie
squarely at the political end of the spectrum.
The Collie catchment is an
exception. Most salinised catchments across Australia are not well suited to
trees, with low rainfall generally being the constraint. The Collie has good
tree growing conditions plus a major external benefit. It is not very common
to have either of those and the Collie has both. The Wanilla catchment
represents the opposite extreme. The Wanilla catchment will not grow trees
(nor lucerne and other perennial pastures species) with commercially
acceptable yields and there are no substantial external benefits.
Scope for change
There are good technical
options for some catchments and these are being implemented in a profitable
manner. It is now generally accepted that there is a need to incorporate a
significant coverage of perennial vegetation if we are to reduce
significantly the level of leakage across the landscape. Trees are generally
not going to be viable for large scale salinity treatment, and changing
farming systems to substitute perennial pastures for annual pastures is the
other way of reducing leakage. In addition, the two main engineering
approaches to dryland salinity that have been used in Australia are surface
drains and pumps.
An important observation by
Read (2000) is that impacts
for human consumers of salinised water may not be as high as previously
thought since it may be much cheaper to treat the salinised water supplies
rather than to control all of the dryland salinity in a catchment. Similarly,
many environmental impacts may be treated more cheaply with engineering
approaches rather than attempting to control all of the dryland salinity in a
catchment (see for example, Lake Warden wetlands).
In
terms of economic value, the two important types of externalities from
dryland salinity across Australia would be:
- use
of water in Perth and Adelaide; and
- environmental
values in salinised streams and wetlands.
The
scale of the latter remains largely unknown, but judgements can be made about
the former.
The
Water Authority of W.A. estimated that reverse
osmosis water treatment technology could be used at a cost equivalent to
$1,300 per megalitre. At that cost, the
entire water supplies of both Adelaide and Perth could be treated to
excellent standards for a cost of the order of $340 million per year. This
would be equivalent to increasing total water charges for water use in those
cities by a factor of about 2 to 3. Reverse osmosis water treatment
can produce drinking water attributes similar to those of a pristine mountain
stream, even for appallingly degraded water
resources such as those supplied presently to Adelaide. The reverse
osmosis treatment process can remove taste problems associated not only with
salinity, but also with other characteristics such as turbidity (which,
interestingly, contributes more to poor taste than does salinity in the case
of Adelaide). It
seems that such an engineering approach would be much more cost effective,
possibly even by orders of magnitude, than attempts at catchment-scale
recharge control.
Constraints
on capacity to change
In terms of achieving an
economically optimal mix of salinity control measures, it is concluded that:
- The availability of
suitable technical options is clearly the greatest constraint to our
capacity to change at present.
- The other two constraints
of particular importance are the availability of benefits and elements of
risk such as unexpected commodity price shocks (for example, the crash in
wool prices has been a major impediment to an increased adoption of
perennial pastures species).
- Other important but
lesser constraints would be lack of information and political constraints.
Read
(2000) has emphasised that most recharge control requires
landholders to switch from annual crops or pastures to perennial plants,
which generally involve more intensive farming systems. Most dryland salinity
in Australia occurs on mixed wheat-sheep farms and the traditional farming
systems have been based on a low level of inputs. Such low input farming has
allowed reduced risks, particularly by providing greater flexibility for
landholders to switch between cropping and grazing in response to changes in
relative commodity prices. Adoption of perennial pastures greatly increases
the level of farming inputs required, and this is a barrier to adoption since
landholders do not wish to reduce their flexibility to switch from year to
year between cropping and grazing enterprises.
The present state of
knowledge suggests the following three groups with respect to likelihood of
adoption:
Those
who have no option but to live with the salt
As in Wanilla, at
present there are no viable options to control salinity in any substantial
way for much, possibly even the majority, of areas affected by dryland
salinity in Australia. For that large area of Australia, the emphasis must remain on
‘living with the salt’. The
hopes for these areas is either that new and better suited control measures
are identified, or that exogenous shocks, such as substantial changes in a
commodity price(s), lead to the present options becoming viable.
This group is likely to be the largest, possibly comprising as much
as 30 to 60 per cent of Australia’s dryland salinity.
Those
who adopt substantial salinity control
As in the Kamarooka and
Lake Warden catchments, landholders do adopt appropriate salinity control
measures if they are profitable in their region and/or if the expected level
of salinisation in the future is substantial.
From the case studies, this group appears likely to be the larger of
the remainder of landholders, concentrated particularly in Western
Australia, where there is generally a greater justification for
implementation of salinity control measures since the impacts are generally
higher.
Those
who could, but choose not to, adopt substantial salinity control
For example,
landholders in the Upper Billabong Creek catchment.
For some landholders the expected level of salinisation would not
lead them to adopt salinity control options even though some of the
presently available options would be marginally viable.
They would prefer to retain their present farming systems and ‘live
with’ the salt.
Conclusions
It is most promising to see
the progress in the Kamarooka and Lake Warden catchments. This has emphasised
that very severe salinity, such as is progressing in the Lake Warden
catchment and elsewhere in Western Australia, is the like of a massive
commodity price shock that is sufficient to achieve substantial adoption of
salinity control by encouraging landholders to change farming systems. Many
landholders have changed to farming systems that represent only a marginal
improvement in profitability and which incur major difficulties for
landholders. The change and willingness to accept those difficulties has been
motivated by the need to protect against the future expansion of salinity on
their properties.
The following important
conclusions have been drawn:
- Most of the control of
dryland salinity aimed at protecting agricultural values should focus on
changes to farming systems at a farm scale.
- The role for
catchment-scale tree planting is extremely limited.
- It will not be
economically sensible to control most dryland salinity and hence the
community will have to ‘live with’ much of the existing (and looming)
dryland salinity across Australia. This is because, for many catchments,
the scope is presently limited by a lack of technically and/or financially
acceptable alternatives and each catchment needs to be considered on its
own merits.
- Externalities
for downstream water quality may not be as great as previously thought;
notably, impacts for human consumers of salinised water (eg. Adelaide and
Perth) may not be as high since it may be much cheaper to treat the
salinised water supplies rather than control all of the dryland salinity in
a catchment. Similarly, many environmental impacts may be treated more
cheaply with engineering approaches rather than control all of the dryland
salinity in a catchment (eg. diverting saline flows away from Lake Warden
wetlands). The community's valuation of external
benefits from the viewpoint of unpriced environmental values remains
unknown. Those environmental values could provide some substantial
justification for government intervention.
- The availability of
technical options is the greatest constraint to our capacity to change for
dryland salinity at present. The other two constraints of particular
importance are the limited availability of benefits and elements of risk,
such as the effects of unexpected commodity price shocks. Other important
but lesser constraints would be lack of information and political
constraints.
- Most decisions about
where to implement salinity control will be made by private landholders as
Government has a relatively small role to play in the provision of private
benefits to individual landholders.
The fallacy that widespread
re-vegetation with tree plantations was technically and economically feasible
led to a fairly uniform policy response over the past twenty years which
emphasised trees for most areas affected by dryland salinity. It is now clear
that this has been inappropriate. The major emphasis should be placed on
targeting only those instances where other control measures are technically
and economically attractive. Those other control measures are likely to
comprise mainly farm-scale changes to farming systems as well as engineering
approaches.
The other fallacy, that
economic externalities were thought to be very substantial, led to
conclusions that there should be a substantial amount of Government
assistance for landholders who implement salinity control measures.
Externalities are limited mainly to (unpriced) environmental impacts on
surface waters at the downstream end of catchments. To the extent that those
do justify substantial Government funding, then it is important to evaluate
carefully whether it is less costly to use engineering solutions to protect
the environmental assets at the downstream sites, rather than to change
farming systems over enormous areas in the upper catchment.
There are relatively few
off-site impacts for downstream farmers, nor for regional and urban buildings
and infrastructure. The high incidence of local groundwater flow systems, and
low transmissivity for other groundwater flow systems, means that such
impacts would be affected mainly only by management of adjacent land, not by
land management further afield in the upper catchment, as thought previously.
The finding that there is
no viable and substantial salinity control presently suited to most of the
area affected by dryland salinity means that Government funding must be
directed at R&D aimed at providing a greater range of technical options.
Options should be sought for immediate implementation, but others might be
identified which could become viable at a later date due to exogenous
changes. The more technology is on the shelf, the more chance it can be
adopted if circumstances change.
References
ABARE.
1992, ‘Dryland salinity: some economic issues’, in Natural
Resource Management, AGPS, Canberra.
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P., Dawes, W., Probert, M. and Moore. 2001,
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Groundwater and crop water balance modelling’, CSIRO Land and Water
project, undertaken for NL&WRA, Canberra.
Coram,
J.E., Dyson, P.R., Houlder, P.A. and Evans, W.R. 2000, ‘Australian
groundwater flow systems contributing to dryland salinity’, Bureau of Rural
Sciences project, undertaken for NL&WRA’s Dryland Salinity Theme,
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R.J., Nulsen, R.A., Ferdowsian, R. and Raper, G.P. 1999, ‘Interactions
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and http://audit.ea.gov.au/ANRA/people/docs/national/Theme6_33_app.pdf
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P., Keenan, R., Walker, J. and Barson, M. 2000, ‘Can commercial tree
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objectives?’, Bureau of Rural Science, Canberra. |